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DIALOGUE

Pre-Term Elections: End-of-the-Season Political Presentation

Recently they have been making words that elections 2007 would stir political instability. Nonetheless it’s clear that the pre-term elections (or their results) must answer the question, whether the present political elite will be able, after all, to build the Ukrainian independent democratic state by mutual consent, or cease to exist having failed to carry out its mission.
Expert opinions
"Charismatic movements in Ukraine replace political projects"
Andriy Yermolayev, Director of the Center for Social Research Sofia
2007 has brought about the vivid display of charismatic battle of giants, where three charismatics lead their armies to an inevitable victory of one of them. However, if there is no convergence of interests of different groups of capital in Ukraine and compromise among them in 2008, 2009 will become a critical year for our country.

The intrigue of elections is in the fact that there is no intrigue at all
Victor Nebozhenko, political scientist
The only intrigue is in the fact which small party beats it to the parliament; however, it can not change its countenance, general vector and character of Ukrainian policy. Now practically all have the same slogans; it is a political message no more, it is nothing but irresponsibility.

The update of political elite is a no go today
Taras Berezovets, political strategist
The new viable actors, so to say, in the pre-election top-lists of the parties should mislead nobody, because the majority of them are all-timers and are protégés of certain economic and political forces aspiring to gain a foothold in power.

“The present reelection testifies to the crisis of elitist parties”
Viktoriya Podhorna, Candidate of Philosophy, Executive Director of the Center of Socio-Political Planning
If during these reelections the parties fail to understand the need in serious changes, these parties will remain in the past. To my mind, this campaign is the last one for the parties of old type; they will survive with old slogans no more.

“If earlier the parties stole votes from each other, now they steal ideas and slogans”
Ivan Presniakov, political analyst of the International Center for long-term studies
If in the past the politicians incriminated their opponents that they did their term or stole, now they blurt that their competitors failed to fulfill their promises. Now they simply blackball the opponents.

«Reconciliation among antagonists is impossible. One camp must be on top»
Yaroslav Matiychyk, Director of security programs of the Group of strategic and security studies
The intensity and scope of current political intrigue is like that during the “orange revolution”: contradictions are still there, ambitions are not satisfied, and political rivals have different vision of future, both of their own and of Ukraine.

Ukrainian polity defies demands of the times
Les Doniy, Head of the Center for the study of political values
So far, the out-of-parliament parties bring about the greatest number of changes. Ukraine needs stronger counter-elite; meanwhile the proportional system and too-high-three-percent barrier preclude it. Therefore, in the short-term we’ll have the same political players.

“Competitive Glamor of Our Political Parties”
Vitaliy Kulyk, Director of the Center for Civil Society Studies
The modern Ukrainian parties could be sorted into glamor and discursive ones. Such glamor parties as Nasha Ukrayina, BUT, and a part of Partiya Regioniv compete in advertising and try to spit further than their competitors in manipulation of the public.

“Everything will depend on the probability of wide coalition”
Igor Popov, Head of the Committee of electors of Ukraine
Our society is divided, electors support their elites, and every group is waiting for truth when its white win over the opponent’s black.

Lavish Promises: Nothing but Catchalls
Andriy Fedorov, Director of the European Institute for Integration and Development
The men from the street think the promises are nothing but catchalls. The majority won’t fall for the bait of promises.

Elections can serve a foundation for the new development
Olexiy Garan, Scientific Director of the School of political analysis, Prof. of Political Sciences, NaUKMA
I agree with the analysts that the crisis, political stalemate, discredit of institutions, such as judicial system, and disappointment of electors will persist. However, there is a possibility that after the pre-term elections the top players can negotiate a compromise and initiate a balanced restart.

New Elections: No Stability Ahead
Olexiy Krysenko, Candidate of Philosophy, Head of the Department for Ukrainian-Russian
Regional Collaboration of the National Institute of Strategic Studies, Kharkiv Branch These elections will not stabilize the political process. It will go on aggravating until the elites understand inevitability of large-scale negotiations prioritizing local ambitions.

Oligopoly-Oriented Elections
Yuri Romanenko, political scientist
Now in Ukraine many politicians consider the outcome of elections; however, there are no statesmen aspiring to a goal decades or centuries ahead.

Despite the outcome of elections, the problems will still be there
Olexandr Vyshniak, Doctor of Sociology, Department Head of the IS of the NASU, CEO of the Ukrainian Sociology Service.
The elections can not trigger political instability, as far as they fail to control from 10 to 20% of political stability. The political instability was aggravated by the decrees about new elections and no future winner can tackle the package of these problems.

“Probably, this will be an intermediate parliament”
Maxym Strikha, Doctor of Physico-Mathematical Sciences, Manager of Scientific Programs of the Institute of Open Policy
The brisk electioneering startup makes leaders of parties and blocks to quit playing with maximum issues; instead, they are busy keeping scoundrels out of parliament, or at least to control them.

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